Video Socialism, Good news in BD Land, and a Bold Prediction

I'm writing this month's column from the world's largest media circus, the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Apparently the marketing guys (they're the glass-is-half-full crowd) think the recession is easing because the attendance seems to be up a bit - 120,000 alleged, up 5% from 2009. For me, however, at least in the Home Theatre arena, it was a case of volume up, quality down. Several of the HT mainstays didn't show up and consequently, it just didn't feel the same. Those who did make it, all brought RED and BLUE glasses. You could hardly walk an aisle without getting 3D'ed from both sides!

Much like Socialized medicine is being shoved down our collective throats, it seems would-be 3D vendors of all flavors have closed ranks and adopted a similar strategy. And just like the health care fiasco, it's not clear who really wants it. At least in the latter case, it won't break any laws if we just say NO. If that happens, however, it could become the biggest lost bet of the decade for the CE community. Most vendors of televisions and Blu-ray players were either showing prototypes or committing big time to "3D Ready" products, scheduled to hit the street by Q3. It's not clear if they needed the time to ready their wares or just wanted some wiggle room to gage public opinion before pushing the High-Production-Run button.

Here's the thing.

Whether you are a 3D fan or not, it seems almost irrational to expect consumers, who only recently were somewhat "coerced" into new HDTVs as a result of the digital transition, and them promptly told they need new high definition DVD players to get full benefit from the aforementioned TV purchase, to be receptive to the message "Now you need to chuck both those acquisitions and replace them with 3D ready boxes - and don't worry, there will be an endless stream of media content to follow". As my buddies in Texas would say, "That dog don't hunt".

Then there is the pesky little issue of performance......you remember, that Holy Grail we were willing to incur a second mortgage for. Of the multiple formats, clearly the shutter based 3D is superior, in terms of minimizing left/right crosstalk, but all currently yield something less than full HD resolution at any instant in time, and yet I saw a 42" passive 3D display at the show expected to retail for $8,000 - so if you want the REALLY good one............!!

Now add at least three ways to deliver this wonderfulness and no agreed upon standard in sight, and the whiff of yet another format war permeates the air.

Think for a minute about the home usage model. You invite friends over to witness this modern day display miracle, but Sam brings an unexpected friend. You already bought 6 extra glasses (at $100+/per for THX approved models) but now you're one pair short - no problem, let's just watch the game in 2D ...or...the right number of people show up, but the dog (or fill-in your own culprit) ate, hid, broke, stole a pair, and the crowd is short one again - in fairness to all, let's just enjoy the 2D view...or...5 minutes into the movie Aunt Martha gets nauseous, so she has to leave to room. Not wanting a second casualty, we're back to 2D.

Finally, there is the matter of just plain personal taste. Knowing this was an impending Hot Topic, I ran an experiment last week. I dedicated a half a day to watching "Avatar" in both 2D and 3D, and for me the 3D experience was just too Gimmicky. While most people in the audience were "ou-ing and aw-ing", my ISF eyes saw lots of motion artifacts, blocks of poor resolution and uneven brightness uniformity. In a word, it was all too distracting. I'm sure I saw more of the actual movie in 2D.

To be clear, I'm not nailing the coffin shut just yet. I'm just saying there is a ton of money being thrown at the "next new thing" with little evidence of a willing market. O.K., so Avatar grossed 4 Bazillion dollars in the opening stretch, we'll never know how well it would have done in plain old, mundane 2D - but my guess is 3.9 Bazillion. To expect consumers to finance a wholesale equipment swap in a stink-o economy for a new format with no assurance that it will stick is a tough, tough task......as tough as, well, getting a national health plan through Congress.

Now for the uncontrovertibly good news, Blu-ray disc prices are finally coming down......way down. If I need a movie within minutes of street release, I go to my local Best Buy store, where they always sell for less the first week of release. If I can wait a day or two...or seven, I go on-line to Amazon.com. There are lots of other good places to go for media, but wherever you shop you should be paying for BD now what you paid for standard DVDs just a few months ago......and even less now for standard DVDs. Before Christmas I saw first run movies on Blu-ray in the 12 to 15 dollar range and some second run (but worthwhile) titles for $9.99. Good news?...you bet, but here is what I think it's leading to.

(Drum roll - here comes Terry's waaay out-on-a-limb prediction). By this time next year, the Studios will pull the plug on DVDs! Crazy?....maybe not. Here's why.

As you have just read (and probably experienced first hand), BD movies are at or below initial DVD roll-out prices. UNfortunately, we now have several BD players under $100. Consumer resistance will never be lower! Even more compelling, although the Studios have amortized NRE (non-recurring engineering costs) and got the bugs out of the mastering process, it still costs them a bunch (extra) to master discs in two formats. Compounding the problem, now they are facing yet a third learning curve, 3D. So just after the Christmas selling season this year look for the white flag to go up on our beloved second generation (don't forget laser) optical disc......or else make a note to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and tell me I was Wrong!

Keywords: 2010 Consumer Electronics Show, 3D HDTV Glasses, Blu-ray prices, 3D TV, Avatar 3D, ISF calibration,  3D ready TV's, 3d HDTV